NEW YORK — Despite Punxsutawney Phil's latest prediction of an early spring, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting brutal winter weather through March in their 2024 spring forecast.
Snow lovers will be happy to know that the chance for blizzards in the Northeast will remain through the first half of March, with a spring warm-up in late March and April, AccuWeather forecasters said.
That means winter weather could last until New York's meteorological spring, which is recognized as March 1 based on annual temperature cycles.
March could “come in like a lion in the East,” AccuWeather veteran and long-term forecaster Paul Pastelok said, adding that “we could have a pretty stormy pattern from late February to early March.”
This follows the National Weather Service's forecast of cooler temperatures and possible snowfall in February after above-average temperatures.
Just six days into February, the mercury has already risen to an average of 40 seconds during the day and 30 seconds at night.
Historically, February has the most snow of any month of the year in New York, with monthly snowfall totals averaging about 10.1 inches of snowfall in Central Park, according to the National Weather Service. That compares with 8.8 inches in January and 5.0 inches in March, the NWS said.
Although snow is possible, accumulation may not be a problem, the NWS said. “We don't see anything significant over the next few days through mid-February,” said a spokesman for the National Weather Service office in Upton.
According to NWS climate and precipitation forecast maps, the third and fourth weeks of February through March 4 could bring temperatures at or slightly below normal, with precipitation just or below normal — and a overall cooler and drier outlook.
However, according to the NWS, if you look at the three-month forecast, for February, March and April, slightly above normal temperatures are expected, with slightly above normal precipitation.
“That doesn't mean we can't have a significant snowstorm — these averages are over a long period of time — so we'll have to keep an eye on things,” the NWS said.
A period of colder weather is approaching, with a major snowstorm still possible, the NWS said.
Although this year has seen much lower than average snow totals so far, the ongoing El Niño climate associated with coastal storms, temperature swings and snowier New York winters may shake things up later this season.
Read more: Strong El Niño signals snowy winter in New York: See the forecast
“The Easter snowmaking window will open in late January through February, which could cover heavy snowfall in Boston, New York, Philadelphia and beyond,” AccuWeather predicted in its 2023-24 winter outlook. noting “a strengthening El Nino will make this winter different from last year.”
